'Could the impending new crisis, vibe coding, similarly create not a disaster like what befell Indian handlooms during the Industrial Revolution but another opportunity like what the Y2K crisis created?' asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
There are challenges galore before him, and it is not going to be easy. In the next four years, he has to conjure a system that changes the optics about him and the BJP both nationally and internationally so that he can ride back on his own, claim the top slot, and not have to lean on a coalition, asserts Ramesh Menon as Modi 3.0 completes a year in power.
India has decided to authorise the country's biggest lender SBI to promote rupee trade with Russia and soon Moscow will name its bank to operationalise the mechanism, exporters' body FIEO said on Wednesday. The RBI in July issued a detailed circular asking banks to put in place additional arrangements for export and import transactions in Indian rupees in view of increasing interest of the global trading community in the domestic currency. Currently, a large part of bilateral trade between India and Russia is getting settled in rupee due to sanctions imposed by the US and Europe following Moscow's attack on Ukraine.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said about half of the Indian companies that it rates are getting a boost in their core profitability from rupee depreciation. "Much of our rated India corporate portfolio has sizable US-dollar linked revenue and, therefore, is not exposed to rupee depreciation. "This encompasses entities in the IT, metals, and chemicals sectors. About half of the firms we rate are getting an EBITDA boost from currency weakening," the US-based rating agency said in a report.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
Gandhi cited the example of Maharashtra assembly elections, claiming there was an addition of 65 lakh voters to the voter list in two hours, "which was impossible."
Stock markets will be driven by further developments on the US-China tariff war front along with quarterly earnings announcements from IT majors Wipro and Infosys in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Global market trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate market movement this week, experts noted.
If you redeem your investments when prices have fallen sharply, you will be selling at low prices and may make a permanent loss. On the other hand, if you remain patient and remain invested, you give your investment the time to recover, says Dwaipayan Bose
The Congress party in India has accused the government of "impropriety" in the sudden termination of KV Subramanian's position as India's executive director at the IMF, alleging it was linked to the Union Bank of India's purchase of two lakh copies of his book. The party also questioned the government's stance on Pakistan's request for a loan from the IMF.
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market, withdrawing Rs 24,753 crore (about $2.8 billion) in the first week of March amid escalating global trade tensions and lacklustre corporate earnings.
Reserve Bank and the finance ministry on Wednesday asked top management of banks and representative of trade bodies to push exports and import transactions in rupee. It was stressed during a meeting that banks should connect with their foreign counterparts for opening special rupee vastro accounts to facilitate cross-border trade in Indian currency rather than popular mode dollar, sources said. Trade associations and their foreign trading partners should explore opportunities to make use of the framework, sources added.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
India is proposing a new law that would impose a jail term of up to seven years and a fine of Rs 10 lakh on anyone found using a forged passport or visa to enter, stay, or exit the country. The Immigration and Foreigners Bill, 2025, also mandates reporting of foreign visitors by hotels, universities, and hospitals to track overstaying individuals. The bill aims to simplify laws, ease business, and strengthen national security while promoting economic growth and tourism.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
'The Digital Rupee will be equal to the Indian rupee in value and backed by the full faith and credit of the RBI/Indian government.'
Whether it's navigating the labyrinthine Cu Chi Tunnels, boating on the Mekong, marveling at ancient Champa temples, or the Mekong Bay, Vietnam promises a journey like no other.
After falling 10 per cent against the greenback in 2022, the rupee staged a comeback in 2023 as it appreciated, albeit marginally, on the back of strong portfolio inflows, in addition to timely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The Indian unit appreciated by 0.16 percent in six months until June 28. The rupee stood in third place in terms of appreciation against the US dollar among the 12 Asian currencies and in 12th place of the 23 emerging-market currencies.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
India's trade deficit with China neared $100 billion in FY25, amid escalating concerns of dumping, data released by the commerce department on Wednesday showed. Chinese imports rose by 11.5 per cent to $113.45 billion, while outbound shipments to the neighbouring country saw 14.5 per cent contraction to $14.2 billion.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
In an eventful week ahead, stock markets may face volatile trends before the RBI's interest rate decision and the US inflation data announcements, as investors continue to assess the broader implications of US tariffs on global economy and inflation, analysts said. Investors fear that a full-blown trade war will impact global trade and economic growth, according to market experts.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
India should become a middle-income country and then push to make INR (rupee) a hard currency, and till then, it must promote the settlement of global trade in the local currency, think tank GTRI said on Sunday. Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that transforming a currency into a hard currency is a complex process that hinges on several pivotal factors. Firstly, economic stability is paramount; a country must exhibit low and stable inflation, consistent growth, and a balanced trade environment.
All about IPL 2025 which kicks off on March 22, Saturday.
Vanuatu Prime Minister Jotham Napat has directed the Citizenship Commission to cancel the passport issued to former Indian Premier League (IPL) founder Lalit Modi, citing his attempt to avoid extradition. Modi had applied to surrender his Indian passport to the Indian High Commission in London, but the Vanuatu government stated that Interpol twice rejected India's request for an alert notice due to lack of evidence. The statement emphasized that holding a Vanuatu passport is a privilege, not a right, and applicants must seek citizenship for legitimate reasons, which does not include evading extradition.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) declined after the information technology (IT) major reported a 1.3 per cent sequential drop in net profit for the March quarter, prompting several brokerages to cut their target prices. The TCS stock fell as much as 1.26 per cent during the day to Rs 3,205 per share.
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
The bank made a Rs 67 crore net profit, up 21% from the previous year. Its deposits grew 8%, the loan book 10%. Net bad loans dropped from 7.53% to 6.07%. So why was the banker, who headed the bank, not promoted?
India's rupee woes seem to have worked in favour of non-resident Indians (NRIs). Last week, the Reserve Bank of India increased the cap on foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) and non-resident external (NRE) interest rates.
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
'To simply let the rupee depreciate to any level according to market forces will not be in the country's interests.'
Indian rupee, which earlier this week touched an all-time low, is likely to remain under pressure and may test new levels as a fallout of the US Federal Reserve indicating more interest rate hikes, experts said. The aggressive rate hikes will dampen demand and increase the possibility of a recession in the US. This could accelerate the pace of capital outflows, weaken the rupee and raise the threat of imported inflation.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and news flow on tariffs are expected to influence movement in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Equity markets would remain closed on Wednesday for 'Mahashivratri'.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said in the wake of appreciating US dollar, the movement of rupee has remained least disruptive as compared to its peers, and the size of foreign exchange reserve is comfortable. On a financial year basis (from April to October 2022), the rupee has appreciated by 3.2 per cent in real terms, even as several major currencies have depreciated, he said while announcing the latest set of bi-monthly monetary policy. "The story of the rupee has been one of India's resilience and stability," the Governor said while pointing out that the appreciation of the US dollar this year, which precipitated large-scale depreciation of all major global currencies including the Indian rupee, has drawn wide attention.
A US plane carrying 119 illegal Indian immigrants is expected to land at Amritsar airport on February 15, the second such batch of Indians deported by the Trump administration as part of a crackdown on illegal immigration. The plane is expected to land around 10 pm on Saturday. The 119 deportees include 67 from Punjab, 33 from Haryana, eight from Gujarat, three from Uttar Pradesh, two each from Goa, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, and one each from Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Another US plane carrying deportees is also expected to land on February 16. This development comes days after a US military aircraft carrying 104 illegal Indian immigrants landed at the Amritsar airport last week. Most of the deportees hailing from Punjab said they wanted to migrate to the US for a better life for their families. However, their dreams were shattered when they were caught at the US border and brought back in shackles. The Trump administration has launched a crackdown against illegal immigrants since taking office, leading to the deportation of many people who entered the US through illegal means. Several political leaders in Punjab have questioned the landing of US aircraft in Amritsar, with Punjab Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema alleging that the BJP-led Central government wants to defame Punjab. The Punjab government has formed a special investigation team to probe the issue of illegal human trafficking following the deportation of Indian citizens domiciled in Punjab from the US. The SIT has so far registered 10 FIRs against fraudulent immigration consultants based on statements from deportees.
India's pharmaceutical exports to Iran have been hit owing to depleting rupee reserves in the West Asian country because of India stopping the import of crude oil from it in 2019 following US sanctions. Pharmaceutical exports dropped 71.25 per cent in April-August this year over the same period last year. The data from the Pharmaceutical Exports Promotion Council (Pharmexcil) showed exports to Iran had declined 31.29 per cent in 2022-23 as against the previous financial year.
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